PARAMOUNT MORTGAGE - LENDER'S BLOG

America’s Best Long-Term Real Estate Bets

Around the holiday season everyone is making lists and checking them twice. We like lists of all kinds including ones full of gifts and holiday parties, but especially when they indicate good news for St. Louisans. Forbes’ Magazine top ten list of the best cities for long-term real estate ownership placed St. Louis in the 6th spot.

Forbes.com evaluated the 40 largest Census-defined metro areas using the last 25 years of data from National Home Builder’s Association (NAHB). The two major selection criteria involved the calculation of volatility in supply (new construction) and demand (vacancy rates). A region’s rate of new construction historically controls housing prices by governing supply and demand.

Job-growth forecasts were also factored to determine a region's long-term strength. As new workers head to an area they will purchase housing inventory leading to predictable positive absorption rates.

Also considered were Forbes’ predictions of future economic growth through 2017 from data tabulated at Moody's Economy.com. Analysis included the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) information on market sectors, each local area's business costs, and growth prospects.

The St. Louis region possesses strong fundamentals for market growth. Our overall economy and housing stock grew in value, but avoided large swings in times of excess and stress. According to Forbes, St. Louis had “a ranking of fifth in vacancy volatility and 13th in building volatility. Builders and city planners have done a better job than those in most cities of resisting overexpansion.”

Here are the Forbes’ picks with job-growth projections 2008-2017:

1. Seattle, Wash.Job-growth projections 2008-2017: 1.5%
2. Washington, D.C.Job-growth projections 2008-2017: 0.9%
3. San Antonio, TexasJob-growth projections 2008-2017: 2.0%
4. Minneapolis, Minn.Job-growth projections 2008-2017: 1.1%
5. New York, N.Y.Job-growth projections 2008-2017: 0.6%
6. St. Louis, Mo.Job-growth projections 2008-2017: 0.3%
7. Philadelphia, Pa.Job-growth projections 2008-2017: 0.2%
8. Cincinnati, OhioJob-growth projections 2008-2017: 0.5%
9. Portland, Ore.Job-growth projections 2008-2017: 1%
10. Atlanta, Ga.Job-growth projections 2008-2017: 2%

Source Link: America’s Best Bets